Nation faces prolonged beef shortage as cattle herd shrinks to 75-year low

Beef prices are reportedly soaring across the nation, with economists warning that citizens should not expect relief anytime soon as the country’s cattle herd has allegedly shrunk to its smallest size in 75 years.

The massive decrease in cattle numbers has been attributed to years of drought, rising costs, and what observers describe as an aging ranching workforce. Agricultural economists and ranchers alike suggest that rebuilding herds will take years, meaning beef prices are unlikely to ease in the near term.

“The biggest thing has been drought,” noted Eric Belasco, head of the agricultural economics department at a state university in the northern region, according to local media reports.

Years of dry weather have reportedly wiped out grasslands across the western and central regions, leaving ranchers without adequate feed or water to sustain their herds. Many have allegedly been forced to sell cattle early, including breeding cows needed to produce the next generation, making it difficult to rebuild the nation’s herds.

Data from a regional central bank found that with each incremental increase in drought severity, cattle-producing regions see approximately a 12% drop in hay production, a 5% rise in hay prices, a 1% reduction in herd size, and a 4% decline in farm income.

That slow recovery is not merely economic but biological in nature, according to agricultural economists. “The fact of the matter is there’s really nothing anybody can do to change this very quickly,” said Derrell Peel, a professor at a state university in the southern region. “We’re in a tight supply situation that took several years to develop, and it’ll take several years to get out of it.”

Peel, who reportedly specializes in livestock marketing, explained that it takes roughly two years to bring cattle to market and several years to rebuild herds, leaving little room for short-term relief.

Once herds shrink, observers note, the loss is difficult to reverse. This reality is reportedly unfolding across ranch country, where local producers describe the ongoing challenges.

Cole Bolton, owner of a cattle operation whose pastures stretch across a southern state’s hill country, suggested the cattle industry remains in early stages of recovery. “I think it’s going to take a while to fix this crisis that we’re in with the cattle shortage,” Bolton told media outlets. “My message to consumers is simple: folks, be patient. We’ve got to build back our herds.”

Similarly, Will Harris, described as a fourth-generation cattleman in the southeastern region, said the effects of the shrinking cattle herd are now impacting consumers directly. “The [nation’s] cattle herd is smaller than it has been since the 1950s and that contraction has pushed beef prices to historic highs. Demand is strong, but domestic supply simply isn’t meeting it and that gap is being felt most by consumers,” Harris reportedly stated.

According to agricultural department data, the average price of beef in grocery stores climbed from approximately $8.40 per pound in March to $10.10 per pound by December 2025, representing roughly a 20% increase.

Despite rising prices, citizens have reportedly maintained their consumption patterns. In 2025, shoppers spent more than $45 billion on beef, purchasing more than 6.2 billion pounds, according to data from industry research groups.

Spending allegedly jumped about 12% from the previous year, while the amount of beef sold rose more than 4%, suggesting consumers are not only paying more but also buying more.

These developments come as the head of state has temporarily expanded beef imports from Argentina to address high grocery prices, while also outlining longer-term plans to support the domestic cattle industry.

While imports could reportedly ease pressure at grocery stores in the short term, ranchers and economists alike say they are no substitute for rebuilding the domestic cattle supply. The situation reflects broader challenges facing the nation’s agricultural sector, as climate pressures and economic factors continue to reshape traditional farming practices.