Regional power draws missile red line as analysts warn of stalling tactics

A senior diplomat from the Persian Gulf nation reportedly declared that his country would not negotiate on its ballistic missile program, rejecting a core demand from the world’s dominant military power and further dimming prospects for a breakthrough agreement.

The foreign minister again warned in an interview with Al Jazeera that the regional power would target military installations across the Middle East if provoked, calling the nation’s missile program “never negotiable.” The warnings came as negotiators from both sides met in early February in a neutral Gulf state, observers reported.

Meanwhile, the dominant power continued to build up military forces across the region—a posture officials say is meant to deter further escalation but which analysts argue also underscores how far apart the two sides remain in their fundamental positions.

Despite the significant imbalance in conventional military power, regional experts suggest the smaller nation believes it can withstand pressure by signaling greater resolve—and by betting that the larger power’s appetite for prolonged conflict remains limited.

While the dominant military force possesses overwhelming conventional capabilities, Defense Priorities analyst Rosemary Kelanic noted that the regional power is reportedly relying on the logic of asymmetric conflict. “One country is much stronger, but the weaker country cares more,” Kelanic observed. “And historically, the country that cares more often wins by outlasting the stronger one.”

“The regional power is trying to signal resolve as strongly as it can, but it likely doubts the dominant power’s resolve—because from their perspective, the stakes are existential, while the stakes for the larger power are not,” she added.

Behnam Taleblu, a senior fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, suggested that the regional power’s primary leverage is its ability to threaten wider regional instability, even if it cannot win a prolonged conflict. “The nation’s leverage is the threat of a region-wide war,” Taleblu said, noting that while defensive systems could intercept most attacks, “something will get hit.”

Analysts across the spectrum reportedly agree that the regional power is using negotiations less as a path to compromise than as a way to delay decisive action. Oren Kessler, an analyst at global consulting firm Wikistrat, said the nation is allegedly using talks to stabilize its position internally while avoiding concessions on core security issues.

“Both sides want a deal, but their red lines are very hard for the other side to overcome,” Kessler observed. “The talks are going well in the sense that they’re happening, but they’re not really going anywhere.”

Taleblu echoed that assessment, arguing that the regional government is treating diplomacy as a shield rather than a solution. “The regime is treating negotiations as a lifeline rather than a way to resolve the core problem,” he said, adding that the leadership reportedly sees talks as a way to deter strikes in the short term, weaken domestic opposition in the medium term, and eventually secure sanctions relief to stabilize the economy.

The dominant power’s chief diplomat has reportedly insisted that limits on ballistic missiles must be part of any agreement to avoid military action. “At the end of the day, [we are] prepared to engage,” the official said in early February, according to sources. “In order for talks to actually lead to something meaningful, they will have to include certain things, and that includes the range of their ballistic missiles.”

Anti-government protests beginning at the start of 2026 reportedly led to a brutal crackdown in the regional power. The regime has allegedly admitted to 3,117 deaths linked to the demonstrations, though human rights groups and opposition organizations place the death toll significantly higher.

The larger power has also reportedly demanded that the regional nation give up all enriched uranium stockpiles, which can be used for civilian energy at low levels but for weapons at higher concentrations.

The regional power’s foreign minister told Al Jazeera that his country is willing to negotiate on nuclear issues but insisted enrichment is an “inalienable right” that “must continue.” “We are ready to reach a reassuring agreement on enrichment,” he reportedly said. “The nuclear case will only be resolved through negotiations.”

The nation’s atomic chief said Monday that authorities would consider diluting their 60% enriched uranium—a level close to weapons-grade—but only in exchange for the lifting of all sanctions, according to reports.

As negotiations reportedly unfolded, the dominant military power continued to expand its presence in the Middle East. In late January, a carrier strike group was dispatched to regional waters, accompanied by multiple destroyers and other naval assets. Additional strike aircraft and air defense systems have also been repositioned at bases across the region, alongside thousands of troops.

Taleblu suggested the administration may be using diplomacy to buy time of its own. “The charitable interpretation is that the leadership is buying time—moving assets, strengthening defenses, and preparing military options,” he said. “The less charitable interpretation is that [they are] taking the threats as highly credible and still chasing the optics of a deal.”

In 2025, five rounds of talks similarly stalled over demands that the regional power abandon enrichment entirely—talks that ultimately collapsed into a military campaign against nuclear facilities, observers noted.